High & Low

Dow’s fall stopped at the possible neck line. Now it’s on its way back to MA200(8600). note that 8600 was a heavy Vol range in the previous tops, and the broke up of 8600 wasn’t great on Vol. Possible round top didn’t come with nice Vol peak. The pull back to 8200(previous low) is light on Vol too… funny thing is, even in the previous low (8200 range), CCI still in ~0 space, while this time, when Doc get close to 8200, CCI is clearly oversold. I treat it as a divergency, so the market should go up. How far can it go? I simply measure the same height…I know, I know, I am just lazy…

Naz looks stronger than Dow, as usual… Last Friday’s Vol doesn’t mean much to me tho, because of the window dressing. Gap closed nicely and we don’t see new low, not even an equal low…MACD is going positive and golden cross, I am guess Naz will form a new high soon, might possible touching the showed upper trendline.

A nice rebounce day for the market, as DOW is moving out from CCI’s -100 territory and MACD is picking up. Everyone is talking about DOW’s golden cross, well, too many people noticed that, so let’s ignore it for now. Today is only a rebounce because it’s up from the support level (yellow area) and the Vol is still kinda low consider it’s a big step north in the index. Still under MA200 and still not a new high yet, so hold on with your long positions for now, I will say, good days might still keep coming. Don’t chase into the market tho.. this kind of move is kinda risky under current market environment.

Believe or not, I like NAZ better than Dow, altho both of them are considered rebounce to me.. NAZ does look like having a new channel established as I mentioned earlier, which gives me more reason to hold on with my remaining 4Q calls, also NAZ’s golden cross already passed (nobody mentioned that, right?), and now it looks like NAZ got a support not only by the previous gap, but also the MA50 line as well. Be aware of the Vol tho.. it’s higher, but not high enough. Some money are still in the vacation mode, and we don’t know when the big sharks come back, which direction will they choose. so far.. just hang on there.

Again, ND is still there, so don’t be too aggressive.

Dow heads down to CCI’s -100 level before NAZ does, even the new low is not formed yet. in this ~8300 range, there is a supporting area waiting for the bears, guarded by the previous lows and MA50 line.. altho I don’t see a possible trendline guiding this move,  I do think the market can have a rebounce starting from here.. might not be a new high ahead, won’t be easy to break down directly from this level tho..

At the Naz front, index filled the gap as expected, surprisingly during the first trading day after OE, I’ve to say it’s long planned and now we can see how week the cross formed last Friday is…Naz got into CCI -100 level after Dow, and yet it is not a new low either. Lining up the recent 2 tops and I am trying to guess the new trend/channel for the near future, today might really be the day to establish a local low/lower band. Well, if it’s going to make a direct break down to 1660 level, then most likely another head and shoulder pattern will show up again…

Naz came across 3 d-days, then 2 huge a-days. due to the quad-wicky day last Friday, the Vol of the 2nd a-day might not be so reliable.  The ND still exist, from the channel side, I do see it broke under the lower band, it can establish a new, slower uptrend from here, but the gap still not closed yet. I’d like to see that close first. if that’s the case, we’ll most likely seeing MA50 to act as a support line.

Dow got 4 d-days and no a-day show up at all. There was an up day with decent Vol, but Dow didn’t gain much that day, bulls are exhausted pushing the index higher? and right after that day, we see MACD crossed heading downward, ND, as Naz, also exists in Dow. Dow also broke down under serveral trend lines. The next support level I am seeing is the 8400. However, last Friday’s increased Vol down day didn’t hammer the market downward, might be a good sign of stopping the current short term downtrend.